June 3

Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline (2019)
By Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson

For 200+ years (starting with Thomas Malthus), we have been warned about the consequences of overpopulation (less water to drink, less land to farm, less air to breathe, etc) and we have seen our planet's population catapult from one billion in 1800 to the current 7+ billion people, with most of that growth in the last 60 years as live expectancy has improved.  Researcher Bricker and journalist Ibbitson, however, take an opposite tack: that the world's population - after hitting a high of 9-11 million mid-century, will start to decline. Indeed, we'd already see the effects of today's 1- and 2-child families, if life expectancy weren't so high.  The authors assert that several factors, especially urbanization, have come together to make small families more desirable.  On the farm, more children meant more farm hands; in the city, children are a liability and more mouths to feed, educate, etc.   As more women, especially in developing nations, are educated, they are often less willing to forego careers to raise large families.  The authors cite many examples, with China being the most prominent; although China's family size was government-mandated, after the 1-child mandate was lifted, it turned out most Chinese parents were unwilling to have more than 1 child.  Even in the developing world (e.g., India, Nigeria), birth control is now available and many families opt for smaller family size.

The authors state concern for the shrinking, graying populations of industrialized countries and say that immigration is the best tool to bring in a young workforce, suggesting that countries should do everything possible to attract them.  They look at Canada as a success story, as the Canadian government has welcomed refugees from all over the world, not necessarily assimilating them into Canadian culture (asserting there really is no such thing) but embracing the variety of cultures and skills immigrants bring.  Very interesting and logical interpretation of today's demographic trends.

Two things the authors do not address are: 1) What happens when the world hits its plateau population of 9-11M?  Won't it be very difficult for a few decades - before we really see a decline?  2) What happens to the "sending" nations, whose people flee oppression or hardship to emigrate to the "settler societies" of the US, Canada, Australia, NZ, etc?